It’s that time of year again. The passing of the summer, the start of the fall. Most importantly, it signals the start of that most magical of times–the start of the fantasy football season.
This year I am in three leagues–one for work, one for “stat-geeks”, and one for family and friends. I decided to tweak the way I approached the draft this year and wanted to share a bit of the strategy with readers.
One of the biggest problems with standard pre-draft rankings, particularly those of the big fantasy hosting sites (e.g. ESPN, CBS, etc) is that the rankings are based solely on aggregate measures of performance such as total projected points for the upcoming season. Now, of course the goal is to assemble a team with players that end up scoring lots of points throughout the season, but total points scored ignores the fact that teams compete head-to-head, week-to-week. In order to make the playoffs a team has to outscore opponents on a consistent basis in order to accumulate wins, not just points. That means drafting players that not only score a lot of points, but score a lot of points week in and week out. When it comes to deciding between which players to draft, managers would be better off selecting consistent scorers versus boom-or-bust players (at least, that is my hypothesis).
Let’s take a look at two hypothetical players: Continue reading